Hans Rosling - Factfulness

If you’ve watched one of Rosling’s famous talks then it’s debatable if it’s worth reading this book. If you haven’t then I’d say it’s definitely worth it. The book kicks off by asking 13 multiple choice questions about global health, development and education. If you’ve seen his TED talk, then you already know that the answer will always be the most optimistic answer. Because of this, a lot of the book is a bit slow paced and redundant if you’re already familiar with his message. The book is written so it will be comprehensible to almost anyone. It is very clear and easy to read. This makes it a little pedestrian for people who already know that not everyone outside of the ‘Western’ world is poor. On the other hand, it’s not a long book and the style is very light and easy to comprehend so it’s possible to skim some of the explanations if you’re already familiar with the facts.


The book has a clear mission: To encourage people to inform themselves by using statistics to combat their biases. Rosling’s approach to statistics is sensible and the advice he gives is clear and applicable. I’m a bit of a sceptic about huge scale stats like GDP, which strikes me as impossible to measure but, for the most part, the stats used in the book are more comprehensible. For example, child mortality rates, percentages of women in education and where the human population live in the world. Of course, it’s possible to argue that all statistics have their limitations but Rosling is prepared to accept that. I think it’s fair to say that some inputs are needed for a meaningful discussion about the issues that are addressed in the book and the stats are better than uninformed speculation.


Alongside a presentation of his message about the importance of statistics in informing our opinions and decisions there are enjoyable and interesting anecdotes about his life and varied career. These are delivered in the style of an experienced professor or lecturer who’s told the same story hundreds and hundreds of times. Sometimes there’s a bit too much name dropping but it’s not intolerable. The style is formulaic but this does give the book clarity and structure. The summaries at the end of each chapter are very useful and I’ll reproduce a version of these after this review. In the chapter on urgency, Rosling makes the point that information is best learned when it is returned to and reinforced over a period of time. This is one of my main aims in writing these notes. In an informative book like this I think it’s really great to have this feature included.


This book is aimed at the popular market and, in order to make the material clear and comprehensible, sometimes it is a bit superficial in its presentation. I was reminded of reading books like Bjorn Lomborg’s The Sceptical Environmentalist and Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow by certain parts of this. These books offer more in depth analysis of some of the issues raised. Rosling doesn’t always use the academic terms for the psychological or behavioural phenomena he talks about. Nor does he reference the other people who have worked on these ideas and discovered them before him. I suppose this could be described as arrogant and taking credit for other people’s ideas. On the other hand, it’s not an academic book and lots of footnotes and references would make the text clunkier. Nonetheless, most of these ideas aren’t Rosling’s and he isn’t the first to write about them but this book gives the impression that they are!


Overall, I’d say this book would be a great introduction to statistics and behavioural biases for someone who knows nothing about them. If you’ve already read quite a lot about this topic then the book is a bit facile. Nonetheless, Rosling and his team should be heartily congratulated for quest to reduce ignorance and encourage people to have strong supporting facts for their opinions!


CHAPTER SUMMARY

1. To control THE GAP INSTINCT, look for the majority.
• Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
• Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
• The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.
Page: 65

2. To control the NEGATIVITY INSTINCT, expect bad news.
• Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.
• Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.
• Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
• More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
• Beware of rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories.
Page: 74

3. To control THE STRAIGHT LINE INSTINCT, remember that curves come in different shapes.
• Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to. [cf. Malthus]
Page: 123

4. To control THE FEAR INSTINCT, calculate the risks.
• The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary.
• Risk = danger × exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed to it?
• Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.
Page: 143

5. To control THE SIZE INSTINCT, get things in proportion.
• Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.
• 80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely more important than all the others put together.
• Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.
Page: 165

6. To control the GENERALISATION INSTINCT, question your categories.
• Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories. And …
• Look for similarities across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant. But also …
• Look for differences across groups. Do not assume that what applies for one group (e.g., you and other people living on Level 4 or unconscious soldiers) applies for another (e.g., people not living on Level 4 or sleeping babies).
• Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
• Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
• Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?
Page: 184

7. To control THE DESTINY INSTINCT, remember slow change is still change.
• Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades.
• Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.
• Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents’ values and how they differ from yours.
• Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.
Page: 199

8. To control THE SINGLE PERSPECTIVE INSTINCT, get a toolbox, not a hammer.
• Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
• Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.
• Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in depth, you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.
• Numbers, but not only numbers. The world cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.
• Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.
Page: 208

9. To control THE BLAME INSTINCT, resist finding a scapegoat.
• Look for causes, not villains. When something goes wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that created the situation.
• Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.
Page: 242

10. To control THE URGENCY INSTINCT, take small steps.
• Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
• Insist on the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
• Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
• Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective.